Major manufacturers of home appliances are betting that there’s an Internet refrigerator in your future. Companies involved in the Internet are betting that there’s a crossover coming between the Internet and your living room television. And Microsoft is betting that the Internet will find its way into all aspects of your home and home life.
This last point will probably come true, but it may not happen the way people think it will. And I don’t believe that the two earlier points are all that likely. Here’s why.
Let’s start with the Internet television. This has been possible for some time, but, like the “picture in a picture” feature on conventional televisions, it hasn’t caught the interest of the buying public. Think about the way you use the Internet versus the way you use you TV. When you’re using the Internet, odds are that you’re seated at a desk, sitting upright, about 18 inches away from the monitor, and with your mind in some semblance of a working mode. When you’re using your television (if “using” is the right verb), your are seated 6 to 10 feet away from the screen, in a semi-reclining or reclining posture, with your mind more or less in neutral. The fact that a TV screen happens to share some of the same components and functions as a computer monitor has fooled some people into thinking that they are, at heart, the same device. In fact, they are two very different devices that happen to share a common ancestry, much like a miniature poodle and a coyote.
This does not necessarily apply to television-type signals being viewed from a computer monitor. However, if it happens, it will be because the Internet is the only way to receive the signal, or because you are keeping track of a program in a small part of your monitor screen while you are working on other things, like listening to a ballgame on the radio while you’re working around the house. However, few people would choose to watch a regular television program on their computer monitor. It’s just not comfortable enough.
Moreover, I can see that eventually it may be possible to interrupt a television or video program, and tell your computer butler that you really like that jacket, and you’d like to order one, then go back to the program. That doesn’t mean you’re likely to interrupt the flow of the program to surf the Web.
Eventually you will probably use a different, third device to fulfill the function of both television and computer for at least part of the time: the wearable computer. The wearable computer, as I’ve discussed here and elsewhere before, will include a pair of wearable computer monitors, which I’ve called “Looking Glasses,” in deference to Lewis Carroll, author of Alice through the Looking Glass. It will allow you to view either kind of signal (in 3D!), and will be your constant companion. That doesn’t mean you won’t use a monitor at your desk, nor does it mean you won’t watch a TV screen with your family in your living room. But you will be able to access either kind of signal whenever you want.
As to Internet appliances, such as your refrigerator, I’m not sure I see the point. Most of the people I’ve spoken to and most of the articles I’ve read made the case for such appliances are talking about smart houses, which can switch on the lights, change the thermostat, start your supper, and put on soothing music for your arrival home from work. You may, the story goes, have your refrigerator order more milk for your when you’re getting low. I’m not convinced that people are going to want their refrigerators making buying decisions for them. Suppose, for instance, that I’m going away on vacation, and am deliberately running down my milk supply. Or suppose that I’m about to switch brands. Having the refrigerator re-order milk I don’t want would be an annoyance unless I generated the mental energy to remember to re-program it. And is the benefit that great? I don’t think so.
I do believe we will eventually have smart houses, but I doubt if there will be much of a rush. No one is going to rush out to replace a perfectly good toaster oven with an Internet ready one unless there are some startling advantages to doing so that I’ve just plain missed. If I’m replacing a worn out toaster oven, and it costs a minimal amount extra to have a smart appliance compared to a dumb one, I might spend the extra pennies – assuming that learning how to use it is easy. Recall how many people still don’t know how to program their VCRs, and then imagine having to learn how to program your refrigerator, and all your other appliances.
Again, I think having a wearable computer, with some smart software that acts as your personal butler, genie, or assistant to do the programming of household devices for you is a much more likely way that things will go. We’re a ways away from having that, and even farther from having significant market penetration. Meanwhile, I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for Internet appliances.
So, when your broker calls up and suggests you load up on the stock of the market’s leading supplier of Internet appliances, give it a pass.
by Richard Worzel, futurist
© Copyright, IF Research, July 10, 2000.
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